It appears that the lead writers at the Nation Publishing Publishing Company have finally come to the stark realisation that the social sciences are not exact sciences. This happens to be the case even though, founding father of sociology, Auguste Comte, sought during his lifetime to make it an exact science of society. Addressing the issue recently in one of his publications, Dr John Gray, of the London School of Economics stated: " Contemporary social scientists have followed Count Henri de Saint-Simon and Comte in believing that social science can establish universal laws of human behaviour, and thereby forecast the future development of mankind. Unfortunately-from the point of view of the project of a science of society- the behaviour of human beings cannot be predicted in this way." The editorial of the Sunday Sun of November 18, is a clear admission that their analysis of the behavioural pattern of the Trinidad and Tobago's electorate was way off course. In fact, some philosophers see human behaviour as highly irrational on most occasions. In acknowledging the deficiencies in their analysis, the editorial stated: " An important lesson from the recent general election in Trinidad and Tobago is that people who actually go to the polls and vote can see matters pertinent to a choice of government in a light that is entirely different from what the conventional wisdom might suggest. The outcome may even contradict seasoned political pollsters. Now that the dust has finally settled, objective observers have come to recognise that pollsters, Peter Wickham and Editor Emeritus at the Nation Publishing Company were showing their political biases in the run-up to the poll. Both of these individuals are opinion shapers in the local society, and no doubt thought that if they could point sections of the local electorate in a specific direction their selfish ambitions could be realised in Barbados when elections were called. Using the domino theory of the communist era and Harold Macmillan's well worn cliche " the winds of change" of the decolonisation era of the 1950s, both scribes are anticipating that they can engineer a change of government in Barbados at the next poll through their self proclaimed status of secular high priests of political thought. Readers were led to believe that with a large percentage of voters indicating that they wanted a change of government, this would have materialised on November 5. Having been chastened by an electorate who prefered to repose confidence in an administration that has brought economic prosperity to the twin island state, the top brass of that newspaper are now saying" The ordinary citizen must therefore be careful about extrapolating from a verdict in one country what might occur in another. In the context of the Trinidad and Tobago ballot, a number of factors that were seen as inimical to the interest of the PNM did not ultimately help the opposition parties." Readers may also recall that the late selection of new candidates to face the poll and the jettisoning of long-standing parliamentarians were seen as acts that were inimical to the interest of the ruling PNM party. Initially the top brass of the Nation newspaper were saying that the late selection of candidates for the November 5 poll was a clear indication that Prime Minister Patrick Manning lacked political savvy. However, having benefited from hindsight, these political pundits are now suggesting that Prime Minister Owen Arthur should jettison some of his ministers who have become a bit jaded after 13 years in office. In their haste to see the back of a Prime Minister who was given one term by a high profile Nation staffer, these political pundits fail to recognise that even though many of Arthur's Cabinet may have already served 13 years, they are still in their late 40s and early 50s. By no stretch of the imagination can they be seen as "tired old men and women." Local pundits (Barbadian) are now acknowledging that issues such as crime and corruption did not galvanise the electorate in a way the PNM's rivals obviously wanted. Similarly, the high cost of living failed to swing support away from the the ruling PNM party. The sophistication of the Trinidadian electorate would have led them to appreciate that local costs were impacted on by external factors over which a government has very little control. It can be anticipated that just as the Manning administration was elected on its record of outstanding economic achievements, the Owen Arthur administration will be re-elected for a fourth term on the basis of its outstanding economic achievements over the past 13 years. The massive inflow of investment funds and the attempts being made by foreign entities to effect mergers and buy-outs of local firms, tell a story of sound economic management by the Owen Arthur administration. Responsible Barbadians can take comfort in the observation made recently by respected political scientist, Dr Neville Duncan, who was reported to have said that even though there were changes of government in some sister territories, it did not follow that that would be the case in Barbados. He pointed out that the Arthur administration had succeeded over the past 13 years in bringing a level of economic development to the country that has been the envy of other countries in the region.
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